A Long-term Reliability Assessment Method for Active Distribution Networks Considering the Impacts of Extreme Weather Events

The growing trend of extreme weather events (EWEs) such as hurricanes has brought severe burdens on the power systems by affecting the reliable operation state of components, thus a long-term assessment for hazard effects of extreme weather events on power distribution systems becomes increasingly important for disaster preparedness. In this context, A long-term reliability assessment method for active distribution networks (ADNs) is proposed in this paper, in which an optimal load shedding model for ADNs integrated with renewable energy sources (RESs) and energy storage systems(ESSs) is also proposed. The impacts of extreme weather events are considered in the method, and the occurrence of EWEs is simulated through a Sequential Monte Carlo method (SMC). Then, the failure scenarios of ADNs are developed based on the fragility curves of components and the stochastic sampling method. On this basis, the optimal load shedding model is applied to calculate the reliability assessment indicator. Finally, A case study based on a modified IEEE 33-bus distribution system verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.