Forecasting Indonesian Crude Oil Price Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Method

Crude oil is the world's most crucial commodity since it is used as an essential material in many sectors and as the state budget's price base. The Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) swings in response to changes in global crude oil prices. A pick increase in crude oil prices will undoubtedly cause economic disruption. Thus, the movement or fluctuation of ICP is critical for business actors in the energy industry, particularly in the domestic market. As a result, crude oil price forecasting is required to aid businesspeople in making energy-related decisions. This research uses the Moving Average, and ARIMA approaches to develop an appropriate forecasting model for Indonesian crude oil prices. Within five years or 63 months, the forecasting process employed ICP time-series data per month for 12 different types of crude oil. We discovered that the fittest models for ICP forecasting are ARIMA models (0,1,1), (1,1,0), (0,1,0), and (1,2,1) with MAPE at 16.0967%. The ICP forecasting results from April to September 2020 ICP have a good and proper interpretation, except the type of BRC oil indicates inaccurate forecasts.