Evaluating the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on Port cargo throughput along the coast of China

The rapid spread of the COVID-19 epidemic and the implementation of the blockade policy in 2020 has greatly affected the development of the shipping industry. To evaluate the impact of epidemic on shipping industry, this study utilized the exponential smoothing model to analyse and forecast the data of cargo throughput among the Dalian port, Shanghai port, Guangzhou port and major coastal ports in China. Then, the percentage prediction error (PPE) was compared with the growth rate of the number of infected people in COVID-19 and correlation analysis was performed using Pearson correlation coefficient. The results showed that the PPE value of cargo throughput of Shanghai Port and major coastal ports in China is positively related to the outbreak of COVID-19. Therefore, the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on port cargo throughput can be quantitatively expressed by the PPE value. By comparing the change trend of PPE value with the increase trend of the number of infected people in the COVID-19, the characteristics of the impact of the epidemic on port cargo throughput were summarized. Finally, on the basis of the finding, relevant departments can make more effective management decisions and target policies in the post-epidemic era.