Displacement Prediction of Landslide Using SARIMA Model Based on Seasonal Characteristic

Landslide displacement prediction is an important and indispensable part of landslide monitoring and warning. The change of the displacement is always considered being related to inducing factors, which are aimed at improving accuracy of the predicted model. However, the seasonal characteristic of the displacement, which has not been carefully analyzed, reveals the law of inducing factors. In order to gain a deeper understanding of characteristics, the Baijiabao landslide is taken as an example. The variational mode decomposition (VMD) method, which can extract effective information well, is introduced to decompose the displacement. Introducing the seasonal parameters, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model is established to predict the displacement subseries. Finally, accumulative displacement prediction values are obtained by superimposing the predicted subseries. With higher accuracy and lower error, the VMD-SARIMA model proves a better option in application compared with VMD-ARIMA, SARIMA and ARIMA models.