A Simplified Method for Probability-based Assessment of Flashover Occurred on the Medium-Voltage Distribution Network Due to Lightning

This paper proposed a novel surrogate model for probability-based assessment of flashover due to lightning on a complex medium-voltage distribution network with some protection schemes (e.g., with some limited surge arresters). Different from adequate randomly generated lightning events in a traditional Monte Carlo method, in the proposed model a simplified set of lightning parameters with some probability factors is adopted to consider the lightning randomness. Compared with the traditional Monte Carlo assessment, it is found that the proposed surrogate model can realize a 10-fold efficiency improvement, with reasonable accuracy. The evaluation can easily reveal the weak points of the poles against lightning strikes, as well as the safe points. Therefore, the proposed method is a practical effective method for the design of differentiated surge-arrester configuration.