Large-scale Offshore Wind Development and Decarbonization Pathways of the Norwegian Energy System

Modelling of the energy system in the countries surrounding the North Sea is performed with a focus on Norway and offshore wind farms situated in the North Sea. The geographically heterogeneous consumption and production distribution in Norway warrants a disaggregation of the country into separate regions. The ambitious targets set forth by the Norwegian government to license 30 GW of offshore wind generation capacity by 2040 also make the detailed study of the effects of such a large introduction of intermittent renewable energy relevant. We have selected to adhere to the Norwegian power market price zones in our disaggregation, resulting in five regions in Norway. In addition, a separate offshore zone has been added for offshore wind energy generation. This paper studies the resulting optimal capacity expansion and energy dispatch from the energy system model GENeSYS-MOD as a result of a) the disaggregation of Norway into 5 regions b) the introduction of an offshore region for offshore wind generation connected to NO2. The modeled time frame is from 2018 to 2050. The results show that a large introduction of offshore wind capacity results in less capacity expansion of onshore wind and considerably less solar capacity development.