Using the Monte Carlo Method to Analyze the Probability of Prevention of Unauthorized Access in the Physical Protection Systems of Objects

in this article, it is proposed to use the Monte Carlo method to assess the probability of successful prevention of unauthorized access (UA) by an intruder to an object equipped with physical protection. As a means of physical protection, a system of technical means of strengthening elements of building structures (REBS) is considered. The criterion for successful prevention of unauthorized access is the arrival of physical security personnel at the facility before the intruder enters the protected room and leaves the facility. The penetration time of the intruder is proposed to be considered as the total time to overcome the typical structures of the object (windows, doors, walls, locks, etc.) along the route to the protected premises. For each building structure, the overcoming time is considered as a uniformly distributed random variable within the boundaries specified by expert estimates. The time of arrival of the physical guard at the guarded object is also considered as a random variable. Multiple statistical tests using the Monte Carlo method make it possible to identify the percentage of successful suppression of unauthorized access attempts to a protected object. For calculations, a base of expert assessments and standard requirements is used, according to which it is possible to estimate the minimum possible time for sabotage by an REBS intruder. Such estimates should be for different typical REBS, which have a different rank of protection in terms of resistance to sabotage by the intruder, and also depending on the type of tool that the intruder has.