Handling Uncertainties in Ground Risk Buffer Computation for Risk Assessment and Preparation of UAV Operations

This paper proposes a method for computation of ground impact distance of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), in presence of uncertainties. Descent to ground is described as a sequence of different phases. For each phase, a model is derived to compute the ground distance traveled by the UAV. Uncertainties on different parameters or conditions can be handled by the proposed approach as well as their propagation through the sequence of computation models. It enables to estimate distribution of ground impact distances and help in designing the width of Ground Risk Buffers for UAV operations. An example of risk assessment involving this process is also proposed in the paper based on indexes derived from the SORA guidelines.