A Tale of Three Simulations for Project Managers

Simulations are a good way for project managers to assess the impact of uncertainties on project plans and subsequent execution. Three types of simulations have been used in literature and to a lesser extent in practice for such purpose, Monte Carlo, discrete event, and systems dynamics. It behooves the project managers to understand the applicability of these different simulations and associated advantages and disadvantages. This paper presents the approach to build a systems dynamics model based on a project plan and compares the learning with those from Monte Carlo and discrete event simulations of the same project plan. The paper will help analysts focused on single type of simulation in the past to appreciate the capabilities of alternate approaches. It will also help practicing project managers to appreciate the effort involved, the analysis generated from the three simulations, and factors to determine which one to employ based on their objectives.