Assessment of Wildfire Risk on Transmission Assets

The escalating threat of wildfires has been inflicting growing harm on power systems in recent years. Transmission lines, especially those supported by wooden poles, are susceptible to destruction by wildfires, leading to loss of load (loss of energy). It is, therefore, crucial to incorporate the unavailability of transmission lines due to wildfire into the quantitative risk assessment of power systems.Burn-P3 (probability, prediction, and planning) is a spatial fire simulation model that is commonly used in land-management planning and wildfire research. Its application can be extended to simulate the ignition and spread of wildfires in transmission corridors. The Burn-P3 outputs are quantitative, however, they do not represent the absolute annual likelihood of experiencing a wildfire. Instead, the outputs provide a measure of relative likelihood, subject to landscape alterations. A process/method is, therefore, needed to convert the burn probability map to the annual unavailability of a transmission line for risk assessment in power systems. A method is proposed to align a map with wood pole transmission lines and their corresponding burn probabilities in the area. The annual unavailability of a transmission line is assessed and applied in the loss of load and/or loss of energy studies to quantify the wildfire-related risks. The output can be utilized for capital project assessment and prioritization.