Residential Heating Demand Projections in Albania by Integrating Heat Pumps and Passive Energy Efficiency Measures

In a world with increasing levels of activity (AL) and final energy intensity (FEI) from various sectors of the economy, global energy consumption and pollution levels are impacted. A perfect correlation between income growth rates, population projections, and energy efficiency measures (EEM) using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) to meet space heating energy demand in line with the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) is carried out. Using actual population projections and income growth rate, six different scenarios are designed to forecast energy demand for space heating in the residential sector, and 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP): Direct (At Point of Emission) is estimated. Decarbonizing the heat supply of the existing building stock through well‐insulated envelopes and more efficient heat pumps (HP) is a core objective in the transition towards a low-carbon energy system. This transition requires linking energy efficiency measures with deep renovation, e.g., improving the thermal insulation of the building stock façade coupled with more efficient Heat Pumps (HP) identified as “High COP HP+Insulation” scenario, which would reduce around 1.3 TWh of electricity demand for space heating and avoid −323.0 thousand tons of CO
2
compared to the baseline scenario in 2050. In conclusion, to meet NECP goals and reduce energy intensity and pollution, the renovation rate should be at least 2 % per year, and the coefficient of performance (COP) of heat pumps should be at least 3.5, referring to optimal conditions.