Modeling the Environmental Impact of Reverse Logistics for Traction Batteries

In the course of European climate and energy policy and the related growth in electromobility, vehicle batteries are experiencing a strong upswing in production and take-back. A practicable and environmentally friendly reverse logistics and circular systems for batteries are not only a success factor for electromobility, but also of strategic importance for Europe to gain competitive advantages and independence from export countries. Feeding traction batteries into reuse and/or recycling is currently very effortful. A cross-actor and -system best practice is lacking due to various challenges. This research aims to identify trends in the reverse logistics of traction batteries, to determine the return volume to be transported and to identify ecological impacts and potentials. For process analysis and volume forecasting, literature reviews and expert discussions with relevant industry partners are conducted. To determine the return quantities, registrations are first forecasted. Then, the numbers of units to be taken back are modeled using a Weibull distribution and average weights are assumed based on the market shares of the vehicle models. Trends in the composition and components of battery technologies, transport characteristics, dismantling and recycling techniques are assumed on the basis of literature and expert information to detail the material flow. Based on our calculations, around 112,827 BEV- and 99,660 PHEV-batteries will return in the EU in 2025, 746,666 BEV and 466,271 PHEV in 2030, reaching 5 million BEV and 898,169 PHEV in 2040. This means a return volume of BEVs in tonnage of approx. 43,849 tonnes in 2025, 333,097 tonnes in 2030 and 2.60 million tonnes in 2040. These quantities need to be handled in take-back systems and transported between the workshops, the OEM, the disassembly site, the site of pre-treatment, the 2nd life application facility and the recycling site. Factors affecting the reverse logistics efficiency and capacity utilization are primarily identified in state-based requirements and in the positioning of dismantling and consolidation. Strategic After-Sales network planning should consider the choice of location, space availability for sites and economies of scale.