Exploring the Drivers of Vulnerability Transitions to Climate Change among Arable Crop Farming Households in Nigeria

Climate change is a global threat to agriculture, especially in Nigeria, which includes rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, droughts, and extreme weather events. Nigeria, as a predominantly agrarian country, is dealing with complex climate change impacts that affect food, employment, and income. Using data from the General Household Survey Panel and a two-stage probability sampling method, this study investigates the vulnerability and transitions of 3,078 arable crop farm households across Nigeria. The study divides farm households into transition groups using descriptive statistics and used the Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) to assess climate change vulnerability, revealing that more than half (56.76%) are chronically vulnerable to climate change. Access to extension services and irrigation equipment are two factors that influence vulnerability transitions. The study emphasized the dynamic nature of vulnerability, with households shifting from low to high vulnerability over time. Recommendations emphasize the importance of national initiatives to revitalize extension services, especially in the vulnerable northern region. Subsidies for irrigation equipment are seen as critical for increasing crop production in the face of population growth and climate change. It was suggested that crop farmers can engage in nonfarm activities to increase their financial resilience. The study highlights the northern region's pronounced vulnerability, which is influenced by education levels and household size. It proposes policy interventions to address these vulnerabilities, as well as insights into effective climate change mitigation strategies for Nigeria's arable crop farming sector.