A Systems Dynamic Approach to Evaluate Disruptions in Large Scale Transit Systems: A Case Study of PATH

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the Port Authority Trans-Hudson (PATH) transit system, a commuter rail system, to evaluate disruptions’ impact. A causal loop diagram and systemic approach are used in this study to explore the interdependency and feedback loops within the system, particularly between operational efficiency, customer satisfaction, revenue, and system improvement. A system dynamics model is proposed to assess the impact of disruptions on the PATH system, and various disruption scenarios are simulated. This paper’s key findings highlight reinforcing loops that promote growth and balancing loops that ensure operational stability. The study suggests valuable insights for urban transit management, emphasizing the importance of strategic investments and maintenance planning. This research not only provides policy-making suggestions but also offers recommendations for enhancing the resilience and efficiency of urban transit systems.