Preliminary Statistical Analysis of Variability in Renewable Energy Production - Case Study

We analyze statistical indicators of 15-minute changes in measured renewable energy production (onshore and offshore wind, solar) using the example of three Central European countries (Germany, Austria, Hungary) over a period spanning almost eight years. These indicators are interpreted as proxies for the demand for secondary regulation in the power system. The main source of data is the Transparency Platform of ENTSO-E. All data is normalized to the installed capacities of the respective considered types of sources, and conclusions are drawn regarding intervals of intrinsic short-term variability of renewable sources that are disturbed with very low probabilities. These data are interesting from the perspective of managing the operation of the power system under conditions of growing penetration of renewable sources.