The Cross-zonal Day-ahead ATC Calculation Model Considering the Uncertainty of Wind Power

To cope with the challenges brought about by the continuous promotion of electricity market reform and the increasing proportion of renewable energy, it is necessary to study the cross-zonal day-ahead Available Transfer Capability (ATC) calculation model that considers the uncertainty of wind power. In this paper, the three-parameter Weibull distribution is used to establish the wind speed model of the wind farm, and the wind power output is obtained according to the relationship between wind turbine output power and wind speed. Based on further dividing China's regional provinces into zones according to the degree of transmission line obstruction, the cross-zonal day-ahead ATC calculation model is established. On this basis, the Monte Carlo simulation method is used to simulate the system operation state, the system operation state is evaluated based on the DC power flow model, the ATC values under various system operation states are calculated according to the ATC calculation model, and finally the probability statistical analysis is performed on all the ATC values, to provide important references for grid active scheduling decisions and market participants’ trading decisions, and contribute to achieving optimized resource allocation on a larger scale. The correctness and effectiveness of the proposed model are verified by simulating the cross-zonal day-ahead transactions based on the six-node example which considers the wind power generation.