Influence Analysis of Dual Carbon Goals on Industrial Load Based on System Dynamics

The carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals have been set for sustainable development and changed the behavior of energy consumption. In the phase of industrial production, the electrical load is high, and affected by the dual carbon goals. Thus, this paper proposes an influence analysis scheme of dual carbon goals on industrial load. The intensity of the government policy on decarbonization is assessed by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Then, the indices measuring the coupling between the low-carbon policy and industrial load is built for quantitative analysis. The system dynamic model is established to simulate the interaction between the intensity of the low-carbon policy and industrial load. A feedback loop depending on the industrial carbon emission is added to describe the changes in low-carbon policy. A case study is presented to validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed scheme.