Risk Assessment and Prediction of Aircraft Fleet Hard Landing Based on QAR Exceedance Events

Aircraft large load will seriously damage the structure, and even lead to plane crash. In order to assess and alert the hard landing risk of the aircraft fleet, so as to take control measures in advance and move forward the safety passage. It combined with hard landing cases and QAR data, then analyzed and selected 6 QAR exceedance events as monitoring indicators, which associated with hard landing. Then, it establishes early warning criteria and thresholds for indicators, and combining the Set Pair Analysis and Markov chain to build the SPA-Markov model. Finally, the actual data of QAR is used to assess and predict the risk of aircraft fleet hard landing. The results show that the hard landing risk rating of aircraft fleet in the first half of 2021 and 7 month are low, but the risk rating is high in April. After compared with a company running data, the results accorded with the actual running situation. The results for airlines to monitor risk of hard landing, providing support for improving or optimizing the risk control.