Data-driven Automatic Generation Control capacity prediction method

To ensure the frequency stability of the power system, this paper studies the secondary frequency modulation capacity of the power system, and proposes a data-driven secondary frequency modulation capacity prediction method. Firstly, the main factors affecting the secondary frequency modulation capacity are analyzed, and the Balancing Authority ACE Limit (BAAL) is determined as the assessment criteria. Secondly, the initial capacity of secondary FM is calculated from the perspectives of tie line, load, new energy and unit, and the capacity of secondary FM is predicted by using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. Finally, BAAL assessment standard is used to modify the predicted secondary frequency modulation capacity. A case study of a power grid in a province of China is carried out to verify that the proposed method can consider the reliability of the power grid and market economy, which is of practical significance.