Evaluation of the NOAA Operational Forecast System in Delaware Bay

Ocean models play a large role in helping to understand the ocean’s influence on climate and weather. Ocean models can also provide information on to mariners to help them in the piloting of their vessels. The Delaware Bay Operational Forecast System (DBOFS) provides nowcasts and forecasts of water levels, currents, water temperature and salinity. A High Frequency radar station was installed in Lewes Delaware in 2021 that dramatically increased the coverage inside Delaware Bay. Two months of surface current data from the HF radar network were utilized to validate the surface current measurements from the NOAA Operational Forecast System model for Delaware Bay. The HF radar surface current measurements showed that the model displayed good skill in estimating the phase of the currents but underestimated the speed by 50%. Also, the HF radar measurements highlighted eddies and complex flow regimes that were not represented in the model. Hopefully, continued measurements by the HF radar network can help improve the skill of the model.

I. Introduction

The US Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) federal and nonfederal network of ocean observations, analyses and communications that delivers information on the past present and future state of the coastal ocean. IOOS meets the nation’s need for ocean information by integrating across seven societal benefit areas [1, 2] which include improving the safety and efficiency of maritime commerce and better predictions of climate and weather effects on coastal communities.