Incidence of Lightning Strikes to Power Transmission Lines in the South of Brazil: Current and Future Climate

Lightning strikes to power lines cause considerable damage to the electricity sector through power service outages and interruptions, as well as burnt electricity transmission and distribution cables. This study examines the incidence of lightning flashes on stretches of power lines in southern Brazil, considering current and future climate scenarios. The analysis of the incidence of lightning flashes revealed there to be a significant trend of increased discharge activity in the summer and spring seasons, and an absence of significant trends in the winter and autumn. With respect to future climate scenarios, results indicate that lightning flashes are more susceptible to extreme weather events, with trends pointing toward significant increases considering a scenario of increased greenhouse gas emissions, thus affecting the electricity sector significantly.