Study on Natural Gas Price Forecasting Based on Prophet-GRU Nonlinear Combination

The daily average price of natural gas has an important impact on the business decisions of natural gas companies, so the accurate prediction of future natural gas prices has become a hot topic. The current single forecasting model has low accuracy for complex time series forecasting and cannot predict the future natural gas prices well. Based on the in-depth analysis of the properties of Prophet additive model and GRU neural network model, a Prophet-GRU nonlinear combined forecasting model based on improved BP neural network is designed based on the trend of natural gas price change from 1997 to 2020, compared with the pre-combined GRU, Prophet single model and the current more popular Long short-term memory LSTM model, the improved BP neural network-based Prophet-GRU nonlinear combined forecasting model has higher accuracy and is more suitable for complex time series forecasting, which provides a powerful help for natural gas enterprises' business decisions.