Prediction of Low-Latitude L-Band Ionospheric Scintillation Based on in-Situ Satellite Observations

To explore the feasibility of the method predicting the occurrence of low-latitude L-band ionospheric scintillation based on in-situ satellite observations of plasma irregularities in the ionospheric F -layer over the magnetic equator, the ion density data provided by the Ion Velocity Meter (IVM) of the C/NOFS (Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System) satellite and GPS ionospheric scintillation data recorded at Sanya (18.3°N, 109.6°E; geomagnetic: 8.33°N, 181.89°E) and Guilin (25.29°N, 110.33°E; geomagnetic: 15.29°N, 182.53°E) during October 2011 and 2012–2015 (i.e., during moderate and high solar activities) were analyzed in this study. The results show that the success rate of predicting the occurrence of L-band ionospheric scintillation at Sanya and Guilin based on the C/NOFS satellite's in-situ observations of ionospheric plasma irregularities during 18:30-24:00 LT (i.e., between sunset and midnight) was 81.22% and 34.27%, respectively. However, the success rate of predicting the occurrence of L-band ionospheric scintillation at Sanya and Guilin based on the C/NOFS satellite's in-situ observations of ionospheric plasma irregularities during 18:30-05:00 L T (i.e., between sunset and sunrise of the next day) was 67.03% and 29.03%, respectively. The results show that this prediction method has a higher prediction success rate for L-band ionospheric scintillation at lower latitudes such as Sanya. However, this prediction method is not practical for predicting L-band ionospheric scintillation at a place near the crest of the equatorial ionization anomaly (i.e., Guilin).