Abstract:
The study of infectious disease models has become increasingly important during the COVID-19 pandemic. The forecasting of disease spread using mathematical models has bec...Show MoreMetadata
Abstract:
The study of infectious disease models has become increasingly important during the COVID-19 pandemic. The forecasting of disease spread using mathematical models has become a common practice by public health authorities, assisting in the creation of policies to combat the spread of COVID-19. Common approaches to the modeling of infectious diseases include compartmental differential equations and Cellular Automata, both of which do not easily model the spatial dynamics of disease spread over unique geographical regions. A geography-based Cell-DEVS approach to modelling pandemics is presented. The compartmental model presented considers additional factors such as movement restriction effects, disease incubation, population disobedience to public health guidelines, and a dynamic fatality rate. The model offers deterministic predictions for any number of regions simultaneously and can be easily adapted to unique geographical areas.
Published in: 2021 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)
Date of Conference: 12-15 December 2021
Date Added to IEEE Xplore: 23 February 2022
ISBN Information: