Application of Single Moving Average Method for Population Growth Forecasting

Data on population growth in Beringin Jaya Village, Riau Province, Indonesia, never recorded every year. Data are often changed each time needed because the administration office never recorded real data every year and there is no system applied to do it. This condition gives difficulties for that Headman to know the real condition of population growth every year and to modernize village when the Headman wants to propose fund to higher authority side in the next year. To assist the Headman to propose a fund, a system is needed to predict population growth in the future. Forecast System is an important aid tool for headman, to arrange the improvement plans of the village in future effectively and efficiently. The research is one way to help the Headman of Beringin Jaya Village to collect and record data. The research aims to calculate the Population Growth Prediction Rate with eight years of data. The research uses the Single Moving Average Method to get MAPE Average Value and the smallest MAPE. Forecasting Ability can be classified based on the Signification of MAPE. The smallest MAPE indicates the best forecast obtained in general. Results of the research show the best prediction of Population Growth Total (2012-2017) in one year is in 2014 with MAPE Forecast reaches 0.06%. Therefore, Forecasting Ability Level is an Excellent Forecasting Ability. The smallest MAPE Average Value is generated by n=6 with only a 1.21% error. Therefore, n=6 is the Total number of periods that can be used for forecasting in this study.