Prediction and analysis of HIV/AIDS incidence based on ARIMA model in China

China is one of the largest HIV/AIDS epidemic countries globally, and the number of new cases discovered every year is increasing. So, it is important to formulate and strengthen the prevention measures of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. In this work, we use time series analysis to predict the incidence of HIV/AIDS. We found ARIMA(2,1,2)(1,0,1) is the most effective model for the prediction of HIV/AIDS incidence. The prediction results of the model show that the incidence of HIV/AIDS in China will continue to rise in the future. In addition, December is the highest incidence period of HIV/AIDS and February is the lowest incidence period. At the same time, the model is used to predict the increase in the incidence of HIV/AIDS in the eastern, western, and central regions of China. The forecast results show that the incidence of HIV/AIDS in the central and eastern regions have increased steadily, while the incidence of HIV/AIDS in the western region has increased rapidly. The above conclusions can provide references for China’s HIV/AIDS prevention and control work in the next few years.