Scaling Time-Dependent Origin-Destination Matrix Using Growth Factor Model

Demand estimation in public transport is critical for transport stakeholders. Thanks to the emerging technologies in recent years, many sources of mobility data are available to model passengers flow in public transport network. One of the most added-value mobility data is smart card Origin-Destination (OD) data. These data could inform us on when, where and how flows transit within the network. The OD matrix used in this work is obtained from smart card data collected by Automated Fare Collection (AFC) system in the Greater Paris Area which is called Navigo Pass. Despite its immense value, this matrix doesn't cover the entire passenger flow. This is due to fraud, other types of tickets (e.g. the standard paper ticket) and uncertainties in destination estimates. In this paper we propose a two-step approach for correcting and scaling smart card OD matrix based on adapted Growth Factor model considering the complexity caused by temporal variation of the OD matrix. In the first step we map all the OD pairs in the OD matrix over our area of study to infer their departure and arrival stations and time. In the second step we exploit passengers' counting data and use growth factor model to scale the OD matrix to obtain a new corrected matrix which can present the real flow in the transit network. We apply our proposed methodology to scale an OD matrix constructed only from smart card validation data which presents between 40% to 65% of the overall flow. For this purpose, passengers' counting data are exploited.