Dynamic Spatial Modelling of Land Use Change in South Kuta, Bali

South Kuta District is one of the National Priority areas for the tourism sector. Development of urban areas in South Kuta was carried out quickly for support the program which is characterized by the process of built areas and will high consumption of land. This study purpose to predict land use change in 2017 - 2037. The approach of this study is quantitative raster-based. Analysis was executed based on trend of land use change in 2017-2037. The simulation model uses Cellular Automata (CA) concept and algorithm with driving factors (physic, socio-economic, facilities, accessibility, environment, and policy) that were shown into 14 variables and used assumptions and rules in land use changes simulation. The results showed that changes in residential area increased by 37%, commercial and services 1.050%, accommodation for tourism 472%, and public and social facilities 1.811%. On the other hand, the direction of development for residential area spreads to the north, quite close to protected area and disaster area. This is extremely different from detailed spatial plan document of South Kuta District.