Prediction of The Export Value in Indonesia for The Year 2021 as The Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic Using ARIMA Algorithm

The condition of the Covid-19 Pandemic has greatly impacted the Indonesian economy, especially the export sector, so that cooperation between countries was temporarily suspended due to the government’s policy regarding the lockdown. Therefore, this research was conducted to predict Indonesian export value in 2021 as a result of the pandemic situation. The prediction method for processing export index value in this research uses a time series algorithm ARIMA. The processing of this time series data uses RapidMiner tools with the CRISP-DM data mining method. The accuracy of the prediction results is obtained by comparing the prediction results using RapidMiner tools with the results of the analysis of the world bank’s forecasts regarding the export sector in Indonesia. Predictive data that has been obtained will be compared for the years 2019, 2020, and 2021.