Passenger Volume Interval Prediction based on MTIGM (1,1) and BP Neural Network

The ternary interval number contains more comprehensive information than the exact number, and the prediction of the ternary interval number is more conducive to intelligent decision-making. In order to reduce the overfitting problem of the neural network model, a combination prediction method of the BP neural network and the matrix GM (1, 1) model for the ternary interval number sequence is proposed in the paper, and based on the proposed method to predict the passenger volume. The matrix grey model for the ternary interval number sequence (MTIGM (1, 1)) can stably predict the overall development trend of a time series. Considering the integrity of interval numbers, the BP neural network model is established by combining the lower, middle and upper boundary points of the ternary interval numbers. The combined weights of MTIGM (1, 1) and the BP neural network are determined based on the grey relational degree. The combined method is used to predict the total passenger volume and railway passenger volume of China, and the prediction effect is better than MTIGM (1, 1) and BP neural network.