Estimating Wind Power Plant Outputs in Transmission System Planning Studies Based on Probability Approaches

In this study, the hourly power output of Wind Power Plants (WPP) to be used as input in long term Transmission System Planning (TSP) has been examined. In this context, Weibull Distribution approach, which is one of the probabilistic approaches generally used in the wind speed analysis, is used. Using historical hourly wind speed data; average wind speed, most probable wind speed, maximum wind speed, probability density function, cumulative distribution function, power density and wind power output for the Nordex N60 model are obtained for each hour of the planning period. Maximum Likelihood Method(MLM) and Energy Pattern Factor Method(EPFM) are used to obtain the parameters (Weibull Shape Factor, K and Weibull Scale Factor, C) belonging to the Weibull Distribution. In addition, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE),one of the error analysis method, error analysis is done to find out which of the Weibull parameters’ calculated methods will be suitable for the wind speed analysis.