Trace It Like You Believe It: Time-Continuous Believability Prediction

Assessing the believability of agents, characters and simulated actors is a core challenge for human computer interaction. While numerous approaches are suggested in the literature, they are all limited to discrete and low-granularity representations of believable behavior. In this paper we view believability, for the first time, as a time-continuous phenomenon and we explore the suitability of two different affect annotation schemes for its assessment. In particular, we study the degree to which we can predict character believability in a continuous fashion through a two-player game study. The game features various opponent behaviors that are assessed for their believability by 89 participants that played the game and then annotated their recorded playthrough. Random forest models are then trained to predict believability based on ad-hoc designed in-game features. Results suggest that a discrete annotation method leads to a more robust assessment of the ground truth and subsequently better modelling performance. Our best models are able to predict a change in perceived believability with a 72.5% accuracy on average (up to 90% in the best cases) in a time-continuous manner.