A New Reliability Assessment Method for Complex Pyrotechnic System Based on Goal Oriented Methodology and Bayes Theory

To evaluate the reliability of complex pyrotechnic system, a new reliability assessment method based on GO method and Bayes theory proposed in this paper. Firstly, the new reliability evaluation method and its process is expounded in detail. Then, Take a typical pyrotechnic system as an example and evaluate its reliability by using the new method. In order to check the superiority and rationality of the new method, the calculation result is compared with the calculation result using the uniform distribution on (0,1) as the prior distribution. The comparison result demonstrates the efficiency and accuracy of the new method.