Learning Incident Prediction Models Over Large Geographical Areas for Emergency Response

Emergency Response Management (ERM) necessitates the use of models capable of predicting the spatial-temporal likelihood of incident occurrence. These models are used for proactive stationing in order to reduce overall response time. Traditional methods simply aggregate past incidents over space and time; such approaches fail to make useful short-term predictions when the spatial region is large and focused on fine-grained spatial entities like interstate highway networks. This is partially due to the sparsity of incidents with respect to space and time. Further, accidents are affected by several covariates. Collecting, cleaning, and managing multiple streams of data from various sources is challenging for large spatial areas. In this paper, we highlight how this problem is being solved in collaboration with the Tennessee Department of Transportation (TDOT) to improve ERM in the state of Tennessee. Our pipeline, based on a combination of synthetic resampling, clustering, and data mining techniques, can efficiently forecast the spatio-temporal dynamics of accident occurrence, even under sparse conditions. Our pipeline uses data related to roadway geometry, weather, historical accidents, and traffic to aid accident forecasting. To understand how our forecasting model can affect allocation and dispatch, we improve and employ a classical resource allocation approach. Experimental results show that our approach can noticeably reduce response times and the number of unattended incidents in comparison to current approaches followed by first responders. The developed pipeline is efficacious, applicable in practice, and open-source.