Risk Assessment of Solar Energy Projects in Lebanon using the Reference Ideal Method

In the last few decades, sustainable and renewable energy projects have become notable targets for engineering and technology. More specifically, the rise of solar energy projects serves as a direct response to the rising demand for energy, especially given the worldwide recognition for the importance of an essential energy transition. Much of the literature has focused on the importance of improving technical aspects of the performance in these projects. To address this research question, this paper first presents a summary of the important findings in this domain. An assessment of the various types of risks present in solar energy projects is conducted. Risk assessment is partitioned into three stages: risk identification, risk estimation, and risk evaluation. The proposed assessment targets strategic, construction, operation, liability, economic, environmental, political, and weather-related risks. After risk identification, these potential failures are quantified based on a survey conducted with experts. Nevertheless, an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was performed to determine the weights (or level of importance) of the aforementioned risks. In fact, given AHP's inclusivity when several criteria are considered, it formulates the problem as a hierarchy with a combination of qualitative and quantitative criteria. The methodology adopted for ranking is the Reference Ideal Method (RIM), which relies on the idea that the ideal solution, rather than being an "optimal" solution, constitutes either a subinterval or a single value in a defined range. RIM is employed as a ranking tool for the possible locations in Lebanon that are likely suited for the implementation of solar projects. Finally, this paper illustrates the methodology adopted by detailing a case study on Lebanon's different potential locations for solar energy projects.