Multi-resolution Probabilistic Ocean Physics-Acoustics Modeling: Validation in the New Jersey Continental Shelf

The reliability of sonar systems in the littoral environment is greatly affected by the variability of the surrounding nonlinear ocean dynamicS. This variability occurs on multiple scales in space and time, and involves multiple interacting processes, from internal tides and waves to meandering fronts, eddies, boundary layers, and strong air-sea interactionS. We utilize our high-resolution MSEAS-PE ocean modeling system to hindcast the ocean physical environment off the New Jersey continental shelf for the end of June 2009, and then utilize our new MSEAS probabilistic acoustic NAPE and WAPE solvers in a coupled ocean physics-acoustic modeling fashion to predict the transmission and integrated transmission losses, respectively. The coupled models are described, and their predictions verified against independent ocean physics observations and sound propagation measurements from acoustic sources and receivers in the region. Our high-resolution ocean simulations are shown to substantial reduce the RMSE and bias of the coarser simulationS. Our acoustic simulations of deterministic and stochastic TL fields also show significant skill.