Credibility-based Risk Assessment of Load Loss in Active Distribution Network

Active distribution network contains a lot of uncertainty factors such as distributed generations and controllable load, so traditional risk assessment models and methods are no longer applicable. Aiming at the uncertainty in the process of load loss of active distribution network, a risk assessment method based on credibility is presented. This method comprehensively considers the randomness of the Monte Carlo algorithm, the uncertainty of load size sampling, and the dispatch of interruptible load on the demand side. The credibility is used as the convergence criterion of risk assessment, which provides a quantitative standard for the accuracy of the assessment process. Finally, combined with IEEE 14-bus example, the simulation results show that distributed generation access and demand side management can improve the security of active distribution network, which reflects the efficiency of this risk assessment method.