An Approach for Probabilistic Composite Power System Transmission Planning - ERCOT

Transmission planning is fundamentally an exercise of risk management to minimize unacceptable system conditions. As more uncertainties due to changes in weather patterns, increasing renewables, storages, and distributed energy resources (DER) are introduced into power systems, it seems necessary to enhance deterministic planning process to better incorporate such uncertainties into transmission planning. This paper presents a probabilistic approach explored by ERCOT that enables creating a wide range of scenarios by considering various uncertainties and performing probabilistic risk assessment. The approach is demonstrated through a case study using the ERCOT system.