A revenue-risk equilibrium model for distributed energy integrated virtual power plants considering uncertainties of wind and photovoltaic power

This paper integrates various distributed energy sources (wind farm (WPP), photovoltaic power plant (PV), small hydropower station (SHS)) and incentive-based demand response to realize the aggregation of distributed energy. Distributed energy aggregation is actually a virtual power plant (VPP), and a price-based demand response (PBDR) is implemented on the user side. First, with the goal of maximizing operating income, and considering constraints such as load supply and demand balance, unit operation bundles, and working reserve, a VPP regular scheduling optimization model is constructed. Then, using conditional value risk (CVaR) and Lu Bar stochastic optimization theory, characterize the uncertainty of WPP and PV, and build a VPP risk avoidance optimization model. Finally, the verification is carried out by taking the example of an independent microgrid in a park in eastern China. The results show that: (1) the characteristics of different types of distributed power sources can be complemented by VPP to achieve the goal of maximizing energy utilization, power generation and economic benefits; (2) for the risk of uncertainty, this paper proposes Based on the risk avoidance model, the risk is controlled through the reasonable setting of confidence and robustness coefficients. It is found that when the robustness is Γ≤0.85, the uncertainty at this time is small and the risk is large. The results show that the scheduling plan of VPP will be affected by the attitude of decision makers when facing risks; (3) When the prediction error e is at a high value, the growth rate of Γ is the same. For these reasons, CVaR will increase. On the surface, lower forecast accuracy leads to an increased risk of uncertainty. Therefore, the model proposed in this article is aimed at maximizing economic benefits, maximizing the use of clean energy based on this goal, and realizing the best operation of VPP through reasonable control of risks.