Now casting of Orographic Rain Rate Using ARIMA and ANN Model

Frequent occurrence of Orographic precipitation in hills during most of the time of a year causes severe landslide which has adverse effect on the habitat around it. Therefore now casting of rainfall in terms of rain rate sufficient time ahead is very urgent need to save society from severe disaster. Therefore using statistical method like Auto regressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) or using artificial neural network (ANN), now casting of rain rate had been done in the literature and the two methods are compared in this work in terms of error performance. The retrieval error indicates the performance of the ANN model is best, however both the method shows acceptable prediction.