Flight safety risk assessment method for low altitude multi-rotor unmanned aircraft system

To evaluate the flight safety risk of low-altitude multi-rotor unmanned aircraft system (UAS), a conflict probability calculation method is proposed to characterize the flight safety risk of UAS. Firstly, based on the assumption that the flight error of the UAS conforms to the standard Brownian motion, the flight position prediction model of the UAS is proposed. Then, the flight conflict of multiple UASs is transformed into the flight conflict calculation of a single UAS. Secondly, according to the existing research, a simple analytical method for calculating the flight conflict probability of multi-rotor UASs is obtained. The validity of the obtained analysis method is then verified by simulation. The flight conflict probability between two UASs at different time intervals and different effective avoidance time is calculated and displayed using graph. The analysis and simulation results show that the proposed flight conflict analysis method can clearly characterize the flight collision probability between different UASs, and is suitable for the flight safety risk assessment of multi-rotor UASs.