Risk Assessment Method Based on Cloud Model for Distribution Network

To improve the safe level of operation and security guarantee for distribution network. This paper proposes a risk assessment method based on cloud prediction model for distribution network. First, the cloud theory is used in distribution network main equipment failure prediction to build prediction rule based on cloud generator. On the basis of the prediction rule, a cloud-based distribution network main equipment failure rate prediction model is built. Then, failure rate and power outage user-hours of load were calculated based on distribution network main equipment failure rate and net topology with minimum path method. The assessment method could be used to estimate the risk of distribution network in order to scan the weakness in distribution operation. Finally, the test results of IEEE-RBTS BUS6 indicate the failure rate, failure time, risk of the load point can be calculated. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.