Influence of Natural Gas System Uncertainty on The Steady-state Operation of Power Distribution System

With the increasing coupling of the power distribution system and the natural gas system, they will affect each other. The influence of natural gas system on power distribution system is enormous especially when the gas turbine generations dominate the power generation. This paper firstly builds the interval arithmetic model of natural gas system under uncertainty. With this model the instability of the gas sources and the deviation on gas load prediction are considered. Then the modeling of power distribution system and coupling parts are also presented. Secondly, a modified coupling power and natural gas flow calculation method based on interval arithmetic is presented taking into account the uncertainties of natural gas system. Finally, the test case that combines a modified IEEE 13- bus three-phase unbalanced power distribution system and a 11- node natural gas system is employed to demonstrate the influence of the uncertainty of natural gas system on power distribution system.