Probabilistic Planning of Minigrid with Renewables and Storage in Western Australia

This paper demonstrates analytical method for resource mix optimization. The case study is for an isolated large minigrid of Esperance in Western Australia. The method is based on discrete convolution of conditional probability distributions learned from data. It accounts for demand interdependence with wind and solar generation and for grid storage. The capacity value of these resources is established by computing Loss of Load Probabilities (LOLP) for combined probability distributions.