Model-Based Assessment of Electricity Storage in a European System Producing Hydrogen and Hydrocarbons From Renewable Energy

The paper presents the methodology of modelling energy-system scenarios for the EU until 2050 focusing on carbon neutrality. The scenario assumptions include no-regret policy options such as energy efficiency, renewables and electrification. Disruptive changes, however, are needed in the energy system to reduce the unabated emissions remained by the implementation of the no-regret policies. The alternative disruptive changes include maximum electrification, hydrogen use or synthetic carbon-neutral hydrocarbons used as energy carriers. The enhanced PRIMES model presented in this paper includes all the options and the technologies enabling the energy transition towards a carbon-neutral EU economy by 2050. Despite that the quantified scenarios entail significant benefits, considerable uncertainties remain unexplored mainly regarding the costs of technologies and alternative fuels that are not industrially mature today. Reaching maturity requires a significant investment which depends on positive anticipation of market development. Policy guidance is required in order to assist in this direction.