HYBRID CONFLICT MODELING

Although representations of many elements of hybrid conflict can be identified in the literature, its more holistic view needs more research. The use of Modeling and Simulation (M&S) to represent past and emerging hybrid conflicts can aid in better understanding of their factors and deceptive mechanisms leading to the accumulative effects. Gained understanding could help in preventing, mitigating, and winning hybrid conflicts. Because hybrid conflict is not an entirely new phenomenon this paper offers a few historical examples followed by an attempt to clarify relevant to hybrid conflicts terms. Causal loop diagram (CLD) is used to represent theoretical model of hybrid conflict, while Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) demonstrates its implementation. The final section discusses a coordinated defense approach against hybrid threats and needs for a better hybrid conflict representation.