The Probabilistic Production Simulation for Renewable Energy Power System Considering the Operation of Cascade Hydropower Stations

Under the background of extensive integration of fluctuating renewable energy sources, the coordination of multiple power sources poses many challenges to power system planning. Hydro generation has the advantages of cleanness, flexibility, and low cost. In particular, hydro generation plants with reservoir can provide peaking auxiliary services for power systems with fluctuating renewable energy. This paper proposes a probabilistic production simulation method considering operation performance of cascade hydropower stations for system planning and consumption assessment in the medium and long-term time scale. A probabilistic characterization model for the load and various power sources is established firstly, and the operational characteristics of hydro generation and the volatility of renewable energy are also taken into consideration in the improved probabilistic production simulation. The coupling relationship between renewable energy and other power sources is analyzed in detail to solve system planning problem and renewable energy accommodation. Based on the actual data of the northern China, the simulation results verify the effectiveness of the algorithm.