Planning in Fragile and Conflict States: : Case Study for West Bank and Gaza

This paper describes an application of the robust decision making (RDM) framework to develop a generation capacity expansion plan for the West Bank and Gaza power system. The methodology is built around an LP optimization and a simulation model to systematically generate scenarios that capture pervasive uncertainties in a region prone to conflicts and violence. The findings of our analysis show how the capacity plan can change drastically away from traditional scale-efficient generation options, towards a more diverse set of options including distributed solar generation to cover risks of delays in larger infrastructure projects and sustained outages due to damages.