Rigorous Assessment of Mission Impact on Sea Ice Forecast Quality

We present the prototype of a a flexible modelling system for Arctic Mission Benefit Analysis (ArcMBA) that evaluates in a mathematically rigorous fashion the observational constraints imposed by individual and groups of EO data products in using the quantitative network design (QND) approach. The assessment of the observation impact (added value) is performed in terms of the uncertainty reduction in a four-week forecast of sea ice and snow volumes (SIV and SNV) for three regions along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) by a coupled model of the sea ice-ocean system, which is extended by observation operators that link the simulated variables to equivalents of sea ice thickness (SIT), sea ice freeboard (SIFB), radar freeboard (RFB), laser freeboard (LFB), and snow depth (SND) products.