The Impact of Electrification on the Gas Sector

The Electrification of fossil fueled applications is considered a promising decarbonization measure. To investigate the impact of increased demand-side electrification in Germany on the European gas market, the gas market model MINGA is extended. First, aggregated load profiles are adjusted to distributed load profiles per sector. Second, a regionalization methodology is determined for each sector, resulting in a gas consumption which is distributed to 38 regions in Germany. In a scenario analysis an electrification scenario and a base scenario for 2030 are compared to show that long-range gas transports significantly increase despite a much lower gas demand in Germany. In particular, the East-West transits from Russia to Western and Southwest Europe are affected. Regarding the resulting gas prices, only minor changes in the marginal costs of gas procurement are visible.